Political analysts are of the opinion that Muslims dominated areas are likely to play a pivotal role in the 218 Lok Sabha seats
Abdul Hafiz Lakhani | Caravan Daily
AHMADABAD/NEW DELHI- The 2019 Lok Sabha election dates are out. As declared by the election commission, voting will be conducted in seven phases for the upcoming general elections. The first phase of voting will take place on April 11 while the last phase will be held on May 19. The results of the election will be announced on May 23, 2019. This election is being touted as the deciding Lok Sabha election with regards to the destiny of India. Being declared as the most important election in the post-independence era, when the saffron party BJP is looking for a second term at the centre under the leadership of PM Modi to take ahead the agenda of the RSS to usher in ‘Ram Rajya’ in the country.
Secularism and the constitution of this country have been questioned by this dispensation many times in the past indirectly. On the other hand opposition parties are still directionless and clueless to some extent in their fight to stall the saffron brigade. UP- politically, the most sensitive state is not able to see Congress into an alliance with SP and BSP.
With elections dates being announced, now it seems like the Muslim vote is going to play a vital role in deciding the outcome of the election. The country’s single largest religious minority makes up about 14 per cent of its population of over 1.2 billion people. About 17 crores 22 lakh population of India constitutes the Muslim community. And in some constituencies, the Muslim vote can play a key role in deciding the winner, believe political analysts.
Here’s how Muslims can have an impact through vote per cent on each seat
• There are 145 seats in India where Muslims account for 20% of the overall vote share on each seat
• There are 38 seats in India where Muslims have a vote share of 30%
• There are almost 35 seats in India in which out of every 3 votes is a Muslim vote
• Overall there all 218 seats in India where Muslims have a great influence
So it’s clear from the above data that Muslims can have a great influence on most of the seats and can play a vital role in Indian politics. If the Muslim votes consolidate in favour of the particular candidate then the chances of him/her getting elected are maximum.
But the post-2014 general election, there are only 24 Muslim MPs which constitute only 5% of overall Members of Parliament. In 2014, 38% of Muslims voted for Congress, 8.5% for BJP, Left for 6.4% and Samajwadi Party managed to get 11.2%.
The BJP largely gained from the sharp division among its anti-vote bank, including the Muslims, between the two regional forces both in the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly elections in UP, which fills 80 seats in the lower house of Parliament. The state that had sent 73 of its candidates to the Lok Sabha in 2014 is crucial to the party’s ambition of returning back to power. The BJP high command is keen on retaining the tally, if not in increasing it.
As the battle for Lok Sabha 2019 gathers steam, the falling representation of Muslims in Lok Sabha has been one of the areas of concern as the House is a representation of the country’s social fabric. It remains to be seen how many Muslim leaders are fielded in the polls and how many of them get elected. But if the outcome of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections is taken into account, one cannot expect a huge change in 2019.